By proposing a three-day unilateral ceasefire ahead of Victory Day, Vladimir Putin demonstrated diplomatic finesse, making it clear to the West and Ukraine that peace is possible—but only on Russia’s terms.

Seth Ferris, May 19, 2025, in New Eastern Outlook

Putin’s Ceasefire Gambit

Needless to say, the Ukrainian dictator refused to commit to a reciprocal ceasefire, instead Zelensky was, as usual, beating the drum for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, something that Russia rejects, as it would only be used to rearm, rest, and rotate troops, in an attempt to shore up a collapsing front line, and allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces, gutted by years of attritional warfare, some much-needed respite. Russia instead, as Vladimir Putin put it, saw the 3-day ceasefire as a test of Ukrainian behavior, one which could, if adhered to by both sides, lead to a longer ceasefire in the future.

Trump is vacillating between wanting to get out of the conflict, and doubling down on arms supplies and sanctions

In the event, the Ukrainians did not accept the ceasefire, but neither were they suicidal enough to attempt to attack Moscow during the parade. This was, however, the limit of their restraint. Russia claims that Ukraine violated the ceasefire at least, 9000 times, with some estimates ranging as high as 14,000, including five attempts to invade Russia across the official state border adjacent the Kursk and Belgorod regions.

So much for “good will”, or good sense for that matter.

Understanding that Russia would not bomb Kyiv, western “leaders” consisting of the UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, the recently elected Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz, and the ever odious Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, arrived in Kyiv on the 10th of May, taking advantage of the last day of the Russian self-imposed ceasefire to make a Nazi-style propaganda visit to Zelensky, where they came up with yet another demand for a 30-day ceasefire, one, of course, with “no conditions”, and talked about the need.

It was interesting to note that Macron, who fancies himself the new Napoleon (someone, please remind him what happened to the real one and his Grande Armee in Russia …) clearly stated that the EU would continue to provide weapons to Ukraine during this ceasefire, and collectively the “Coalition of the Willing” along with Donald Trump have threatened “massive” sanctions on Russia if it does not agree to extend the ceasefire.

More ominously, the German chancellor Mertz has reversed the previous government’s policy of transparency and public debate related to arms shipments to Ukraine, almost certainly a precursor to shipping Taurus air launched cruise missiles, while “Mr Peace” himself, Donald Trump, has peacefully agreed to the transfer of 125 HIMARS rockets and 100 Patriot air defense missiles from German stocks to Ukraine. Trump’s administration has also recently approved a US$ 350,000,000 dollar maintenance package for European F-16s already transferred to Ukraine, and the Don himself has previously threatened secondary sanctions on Russia in one of his many rambling social media posts.

It is interesting how the European leaders who met with Zelensky on the 10th and issued their ridiculous ultimatum, claimed that Trump is in full support of their position regarding an immediate unconditional ceasefire, and agreeing to support and impose further sanctions in the case of a Russian refusal. Needless to say, European leaders finished with the overused “the ball is now in Russia’s court” declaration.

Vladimer Putin, rather unsurprisingly for anyone aware of recent history, has firmly returned the serve issued up by Zelensky, Starmer, Merz, Macron, and Tusk. In an early morning press conference, at 2:30 am Moscow time, Putin rejected calls for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, but instead proposed peace talks without preconditions, to be held in Turkey beginning on the 15th. Putin noted the pointlessness of ceasefires without addressing the root causes of the conflict, and also noted that Ukraine has broken not only the Victory Day ceasefire, but the Easter ceasefire, and the 30-day energy infrastructure ceasefire negotiated by Trump himself.

Of course, Zelensky and his puppet masters immediately rejected the idea of talks without a ceasefire, Macron stating:

There can be no dialogue if, at the same time, civilians are being bombed. A ceasefire is needed now, so that talks can begin. For peace,

And Trump’s envoy, retired US General Kellogg, said:

As President Trump has repeatedly said, stop the killing!! An unconditional 30-day ceasefire first and, during it, move into comprehensive peace discussions. Not the other way around.

These statements are delusional, from a historical respect. The United States and North Vietnam negotiated in Paris from 1968 to 1973, during which the war in Vietnam rolled on unceasingly. Iran and Iraq negotiated with each other during the entirety of the Iran-Iraq war, as did the UN forces with China and North Korea during the Korean War. The stark reality is that there is no historical precedent for a ceasefire before negotiations, in fact, quite the opposite.

It also seems that they didn’t check with the Don before making such insane declarations. In a searing post on his “Truth Social” social media site, Trump blasted out:

President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY.

Zelensky has immediately folded, quickly announcing his readiness to talk with Putin in Istanbul on the 15th of May, but still initially insisted on a ceasefire first.

One can only imagine what was said to the Ukrainian unelected leader behind the scenes because he subsequently confirmed he would attend regardless of whether a ceasefire begins or not, but insisted on direct talks between himself and Putin, something the Russians, not surprisingly, refused.

Instead, in a rather pointed reference to the peace proposal refused by Ukraine and the collective West in 2022, the Russian President appointed the same team that led those negotiations, headed by presidential adviser Vladimir Medinsky. Both the Russian team and Zelensky arrived in Istanbul on the 15th.

Needless to say, the “monkey with a hand grenade”, Ukrainian President Zelensky, proceeded to try and sabotage them, meeting with Erdoğan, but refusing to meet the Russian delegation at the agreed time and place, stating that there were no “high level” representatives. In the end, though, Zelensky was forced to order a negotiating team headed by his henchman Umerov, after making the Russians wait an entire day.

The talks went ahead on the 16th, with meetings between the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, and his Ukrainian “allies” which were followed by a meeting behind closed doors between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations. This meeting was, by diplomatic standards, incredibly short, and has only resulted in an agreement for a 1000 for 1000 prisoner exchange (POW) and that both parties will submit proposals for a ceasefire. In the aftermath of the meeting, Ukraine, and its Western backers, commenced whining that Russia was keeping to its “maximalist” position.

Hint, the side winning gets to do that!

It was also reported by western media that Russia, not surprisingly, demanded that Ukraine withdraw from all four mainland regions now part of the Russian Federation by referendum and constitution. According to the Ukrainian delegation, when they refused, the Russians warned that next time it was discussed the demand would be for eight regions. When asked about this by RT, the Russian delegation replied, “We said eight” and given the constant drumbeat of warnings about a massive Russian buildup, we can be sure that a Russian summer offensive is in the works.

This is borne out by Putin’s statement on Sunday 18th May, that “We have enough strength and resources to bring what was started in 2022 to a logical conclusion with the result that Russia needs” which was made in the wake of the failure of the negotiations to make any real progress, though I would be surprised if the Russian president really expected them to.

So what to make of all this. In a word, Western desperation. For the Europeans, the war in Ukraine, and the insane propaganda that has been unleashed by the EU and UK, has resulted in the investment of so much political capital, money, and arms, that to admit defeat now will destroy the political careers of most European politicians, just as support for Ukraine has destroyed their economies.

Trump, who promised to end “Biden’s War” as he put it, has effectively made the war in Ukraine his by failing to do what needed to be done, cut off the flow of arms, equipment, and intelligence, and thereby force Ukraine to make a peace deal with Russia. Instead, as Zelensky has proudly claimed, US intelligence, weapons, and training continues unabated, desperately trying to prop up a failing regime, much the same way as was done with South Vietnam until its collapse 50 years ago. Trump is vacillating between wanting to get out of the conflict, and doubling down on arms supplies and sanctions in order not to be seen as a “loser”, the main lever the supporters of Ukraine have to influence president Trump.

One thing is certain, Putin’s diplomatic masterstroke has exposed the Europeans as warmongers, Trump as vacillating, and Putin as the greatest statesman of his generation. It goes without saying that the peace terms will be dictated by Russia.

This is what happens when the Coalition of the Losers meets real Statecraft.

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Seth Ferris, investigative journalist and political scientist, expert on Middle Eastern affairs